Alright… This one needs to be said properly. 🧮
Because on the surface, the market looks confusing but underneath, it’s actually very clear.
Home sales are slightly up. Prices are still down. Listings are dropping.
That combination? It’s not normal. And it’s telling us a lot.
Let’s break it down without the fluff.
Sales are up about 1.7% year-over-year. Sounds positive, right?
Not really. That’s a tiny bump coming off one of the weakest markets we’ve seen. It’s not strength it’s stabilization at best.
At the same time, prices are still down around 6–7%.
So even with a bit more activity… values are still slipping. That tells you buyers are active but only at the right price.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
New listings are down nearly 17%. And this isn’t a one-month thing. It’s been happening for three straight months.
Trend that sticks, changes everything!
Because for the last two years, the story was oversupply. Listings everywhere.
Now? That flood is slowing down.
And I’m seeing it myself on the ground.
I have seen a lot of listings that are actually on the market for sale and for the lease at the same time!
That tells you everything you need to know about seller psychology.
Not everyone has to sell.
Some are testing the market.
Some didn’t get the number they wanted last year and pulled the listing.
Others are just renting it out and waiting.
This isn’t panic selling.
This is controlled holding.
And that’s a big reason why this market isn’t crashing.
Because no matter what headlines say if sellers don’t show up, prices can’t collapse fast.
Now let’s talk product types, because this is where people get burned.
YEAR OVER YEAR;
Detached homes? Down around 6%.
Semis? Around 8%.
Townhomes are slightly down.
But condos? Close to 10% down and still under pressure!!!
No surprise there.
Inventory is sitting heavily in condos, especially smaller units, no parking, investor-type properties.
Buyers are picky now. Very picky.
You bring a clean 2-bed, 2-bath with parking in a good building and priced correctly? It moves quick.
You bring a small one-bed with no parking? Good luck.
That’s not a market issue that’s a product issue and only it sells if it's priced correctly!
Now flip to freeholds in good areas like Leslieville, Riverdale, Beaches, Junction, High Park…
Different world.
Low inventory + serious buyers = Competition.
I’ve seen it many times since early February that multiple offers are highly happening but only works well on the right listings..
Overprice it? Dead.
Price it sharp? You can still create a bidding war.
That’s the split right now.
This is not one market.
It’s multiple markets happening at the same time.
Now layer in something most people are missing…
The new HST rebate on new builds.
This is big.
Because now you’ve got buyers looking at pre-construction or new builds and thinking:
“Wait… I can save real money here.”
So what happens?
Some demand shifts away from resale.
Short term → more pressure on resale pricing
Long term → helps supply
But right now? It adds another layer of hesitation for resale sellers.
So where does that leave us?
Prices have been trending down and are now sitting around 2021 levels.
Month-to-month looks flat but zoom out, and the pressure is still there.
This is the market trying to reset to what people can actually afford.
Not emotionally. Financially.
And until affordability lines up with reality, this grind continues.
So what should you actually do with this?
If you’re a buyer:
You still have leverage especially in condos. But if listings keep dropping, that window starts closing. Less supply = more competition.
If you’re a seller:
Motivation is everything. If you need to sell, price it right and move. If you don’t? You’re competing with people who also don’t need to sell and that creates stagnation.
My take?
This is the transition phase.
Not the bottom. Not recovery.
This is where the smart money starts moving quietly… while everyone else is still waiting for headlines to tell them what already happened.
And one more thing April and May? That’s where this market picks a direction.
If listings stay low → things tighten fast.
If listings flood back → pressure continues.
Simple as that.
This market isn’t emotional anymore.
It’s strategic.
And right now… strategy is everything.
