January Edition!❄️ A Fresh Start

New year, fresh perspective.
January always hits different for me! I was born on January 5th, so this month feels like a personal reset button.

A new year isn’t about massive moves. It’s about small, intentional decisions done consistently in life and in real estate. The people who win aren’t the ones who rush. They’re the ones who plan, stay patient, and move when the timing is right.

Here’s a thought I’m carrying into this year:

“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.”
Jim Rohn

Different year. Same commitment.
Clarity, strategy, and looking out for your best interest always.

In today's edition:

🔮 2026 Toronto Housing Market Predictions

📊 Toronto Real Estate Market December 2025

❓ Top Condo buildings around the Union Station

💰 Condo Fees are Scam?

🔎 Buyer Matchmaking: Who I'm Working With Right Now

Let’s get started…

2026 Toronto Housing Market Outlook

Toronto Housing Market 2026: The Ugly Transition Year

2026 isn’t a rebound year. It’s not a crash either. It’s a grind.

Prices are still under pressure. Inventory is too high, power-of-sale listings are rising, and weak projects are getting exposed. Time under tension always does this the weak hands get flushed out. If you’re waiting for a spring miracle, that idea is trash. Math doesn’t care about hope.

That said, sales will go up. Not because things are great, but because prices finally start making sense. After years of paralysis, even small confidence gains will bring buyers back. More transactions, lower prices that paradox sticks all year.

Mortgage rates are likely to stay relatively stable. Fixed rates hanging under 4% gives buyers just enough oxygen to move, especially those sitting on solid down payments. That’s the only reason sales improve at all.

Condos remain the problem child. Small units and investor-heavy buildings are still getting punched in the face. Too much supply, softer rents, and investors tapping out. Bigger, well-located condos hold up better, but this is not a condo comeback year.

Rent keeps sliding. Population growth slows, supply keeps hitting, and landlords lose leverage. Great for tenants. Rough for overleveraged investors.

The real opportunity? Entry-level low-rise townhomes, condo townhomes, anything ground-oriented. That segment is weirdly weak right now, and prices have dropped enough to matter. For buyers who were priced out for years, this is the first real opening that isn’t a trap.

Bottom line:
2026 is a reset year. Sideways at best, painful in spots, and necessary. It clears bad debt, bad projects, and bad expectations so the market can actually recover later.

If you play it right, this is a setup year.
If you wait for “good news,” I you’ll miss it.

Toronto Real Estate Market December 2025

Alright, let’s call this what it is
December didn’t sugarcoat anything.

The December 2025 Market Watch report is out, and this one lands heavy. Home sales fell nearly 9%, while new listings and active inventory both increased. Translation? More homes on the market, fewer buyers stepping up. That imbalance is the core story of December. Number of sales dropped across almost every property type, with one exception: 416 detached homes, which were actually up about 10% year-over-year. That tells us something important! Buyers with money are selectively stepping in where they see real price corrections, not chasing everything.

Lately, a lot of industry veterans are saying something uncomfortable but important: this market feels a lot like the 1990s downturn. Back then, prices didn’t bounce quickly, they drifted lower for years. We’re now almost four years into a slow correction, not a short dip. And the data supports that.

Prices followed the same pattern. They declined across nearly all categories and prices didn’t fall randomly. The 2022 peak was fueled by cheap money and urgency in many ways, artificial demand. What we’re seeing now is that excess being worked off. On a full-year basis, 2025 was the slowest year for home sales in at least 20 years. Sellers felt it. Every single month saw elevated terminated listings, and months of inventory hit a 10-year high. We’ve officially gone from extreme scarcity in early 2022 to excess supply today.

The biggest drag on the market right now isn’t interest rates anymore it’s confidence. Ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, job losses in manufacturing and auto sectors, and growing anxiety around AI and employment are keeping buyers cautious. Even major brokerages like Royal LePage and RE/MAX who are usually optimistic by design are forecasting continued price declines in Toronto through the end of 2026. That alone tells you this isn’t just media noise.

For sellers, the advice today sounds eerily similar to the 90s: if you’re selling, earlier is better than later in a declining market. Waiting for a rebound that may not arrive quickly can cost real money.
For buyers, this is clearly a buyer’s market less competition, more choice, and borrowing costs that are far more reasonable than two years ago.

Condos remain the pressure point. A wave of supply from the pandemic pre-construction boom is hitting the market, especially small one-bedroom and studio units that investors favored when rates were low. Many of those investors have exited, and end-users simply don’t want those layouts. Add to that a high failure rate on pre-construction closings, and you get ongoing downward pressure. Purpose-built rental is becoming the fallback strategy for developers who haven’t broken ground yet.

On the rate side, the Bank of Canada has already done most of the heavy lifting. Variable rates around the mid-3% range are available and expected to hold, while fixed rates may actually creep up if bond yields stay elevated. That’s why most buyers are still choosing fixed certainty matters in uncertain times.

One stat really sums up the shift: 84% of homes sold below asking price a level we haven’t seen since the global financial crisis.
The sale-to-list price ratio dropped to 96.4%, the lowest in the entire dataset. For perspective, at the peak of the market that number was closer to 120%.
Sellers are no longer negotiating from strength they’re adjusting to reality. And that reality shows up in prices too: average home values are now down about 26% from the peak, with the GTA average hovering just above $1 million.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that dip below the seven-figure mark sometime soon.

Final Thoughts on my Market update for December

December confirms what many felt all year: this is no longer an emotional, headline-driven market it’s a numbers market. Buyers have leverage, time, and choice. Sellers need strategy, patience, and realistic pricing. This isn’t a crash, but it is a deep reset after years of excess. The opportunities in 2026 won’t come from hype they’ll come from preparation. And the people who understand this shift early will be the ones who benefit most. The market will move again when the economy gives people a reason to feel secure about jobs and income.
The next real recovery likely doesn’t start with housing it starts with confidence.

If you want to play this market well, you need realism, not headlines.

Top Condo buildings around the Union Station

Condos Near Union Station: A Smart Downtown Play

A Brief History of Union Station
Opened in 1927 and officially inaugurated in 1930 by King George V, Toronto’s Union Station was built by the Canadian Pacific Railway and the Grand Trunk Railway to replace earlier overcrowded stations. It quickly became Canada’s busiest rail terminal and a cornerstone of downtown Toronto.

Between 2010 and 2024, Union Station underwent a major revitalization, transforming into a modern, mixed-use transit hub with expanded GO Transit and UP Express capacity, new concourses, retail space, and restored heritage architecture all while remaining a designated National Historic Site.

Top Condo Buildings Near Union Station

Maple Leaf Square – 55 & 65 Bremner Blvd
Directly across from Union Station, this complex offers unmatched convenience. These are older buildings with larger, more functional layouts. Maintenance fees are higher than average and short-term rentals are permitted, which may not appeal to owner-focused buyers. That said, pricing has been relatively attractive compared to newer towers, making it worth consideration for location alone.

Infinity Towers – 25 Lower Simcoe St
A mid-rise building completed in 2015 with efficient layouts and a strong community feel. West-facing units offer protected CN Tower views overlooking parkland. Direct PATH access connects residents to Union Station, and the waterfront is only a short walk away. A well-balanced option for end users.

London on the Esplanade – 1 Scott St & 38 The Esplanade
Located just east of Union Station, this building combines walkability with a slightly calmer environment. Known for good floor plans and a strong residential vibe, it remains a consistent top choice for buyers who want proximity without being in the busiest core.

19 Grand Trunk Cres & 51 Lower Simcoe St
Built by Conservatory Group, these sister buildings offer functional layouts, reasonable maintenance fees, and a strong owner-occupied presence. Pricing per square foot remains competitive for the area. West-facing units feature long-term protected views of the CN Tower and downtown skyline.

The Berczy – 55 Front St East
A boutique, end-user-focused building that’s often overlooked. Not a high-rise, so views are limited, but layouts are excellent and resale inventory is scarce. This is a “quiet quality” building ideal for buyers prioritizing livability over flash.

Pinnacle Centre – 12, 16 & 18 Yonge St, 33 Harbour Sq
High-rise towers developed by Pinnacle with surprisingly functional layouts. These buildings offer strong value relative to location, with skyline views and a short walk to Union Station. A solid option for buyers seeking space in a central setting.

33 University Ave
A more traditional, owner-occupied building with larger floor plans and fewer units per floor. Ideal for downsizers or buyers prioritizing space, privacy, and long-term livability over modern amenities. Location near the Financial District and Union Station remains a major draw.

88 & 100 Harbour St
High-rise towers with direct PATH access to Union Station and extensive amenities. While community feel is limited due to scale, these buildings offer excellent accessibility, solid construction, and impressive south-facing views over the lake.

💰Condo Fees are Scam?

Condo fees aren’t random. They’re a shared operating budget for the entire building, and they usually cover four things:

Day-to-day operations
Property management, cleaning, garbage, recycling, landscaping, snow removal, and sometimes concierge or security. Stuff you’d pay for yourself in a house, just bundled.
Utilities (often)
Many buildings include heat, water, A/C, and sometimes hydro. People love to ignore this when comparing condos to houses. That’s a mistake.
Building insurance
The entire structure is insured by the condo corporation. Homeowners pay this separately and usually underestimate it.
Reserve fund (the big one)
This is forced savings for roofs, elevators, windows, garages, and major systems. No surprise bills if it’s done right.

Fees are based on what you own:

Bigger unit = higher fee
Parking spot = extra fee
Locker = extra fee
Outdoor terraces? Usually common elements, not included

That’s why older condos look expensive, units were bigger. Per square foot, many are actually cheaper than newer buildings.

“But houses just hide the costs.
Roof? $20K-40K
Windows? $15–30K.
Furnace or A/C? $5–10K.
No reserve fund. When it breaks, you pay. Period.

The real risk isn’t condo fees! It’s bad management

Red flags:

Weak reserve fund
Deferred maintenance
Sudden big fee jumps
Loans to cover repairs

Well-run buildings with solid reserve funds sell in any market. Poorly run ones get wrecked fast.

Condo fees aren’t a scam. Poorly managed condos are.

That’s why status certificates matter and why not all condos are equal.

🔎 Buyer and Seller Matchmaking: Who I'm Working With Right Now

Toronto’s real estate market is full of potential, and I’m currently working with several serious buyers each with clear goals, strong budgets, and readiness to close. If you’re thinking of selling or know someone who might be, these clients could be the perfect match:

🏡 Midtown Buyer: Looking for a newly built 2–3 storey detached home in a quiet Midtown neighborhood. Needs 4+1 bedrooms, over 2,000 sq ft, built-in garage. Budget up to $4.5M. Ready to close within a month.

🏛️ Annex/Rosedale Buyer: Searching for a detached home over 3,000 sq ft in Annex or Rosedale. Budget up to $5M. Open to elegant, character-rich homes in prime locations.

🏘️ Mississauga Buyer: Focused on Burnhamthorpe, Rockwood Village, or Summerville. Wants a well-maintained detached home with a separate basement entrance. Budget up to $1.3M.

🏢 Condo Buyer in Annex/Casa Loma: Seeking a spacious 3-bedroom condo. Budget up to $2M. Prefers boutique buildings with charm and walkable access to amenities.

🌳 Pickering/Ajax Buyer: Looking for a detached home with 4+ bedrooms, over 2,000 sq ft, and a double car garage. Not too old.

🏰 Luxury Buyer in Bridle Path/Windfields: Interested in newer detached homes over 5,000 sq ft. Budget around $5.5M. Looking for refined finishes and privacy.

🌊 Condo Buyer in Etobicoke or Distillery District: Wants 850+ sq ft, 2 bedrooms, ideally a 2+1 layout for work-from-home. Budget up to $800K. Prefers lower floors (15–17), walk-in closet, balcony, spacious kitchen, and maintenance fees under $1,000. Easy highway access is a must.

🏢 Condo Buyer around the UofT Toronto: Looking for 2 bedroom condo apartment max 10 years old, up to $850K, must include a parking and open view is prefered.

🏘️Condo Townhouse buyer: Around the GTA 2 bedroom condo townhouse with Terrace or backard, must have a parking. Budget is up to $650K

If you or someone you know has a property that fits any of these needs, I’d love to connect. These buyers are ready, motivated, and looking for the right opportunity. Let’s work together to make great matches happen and keep our real estate community thriving.

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🧘 Closing Thoughts

Thanks for sticking with me to the end! ❤️

January is about direction.
The noise is loud, motivation is high, and everyone’s talking about “new year, new goals.” But real progress doesn’t come from excitement, it comes from structure.

In real estate and in life, the edge comes from doing the boring things well, early, and consistently… before results show up.

Here’s the thought I’m carrying into this year:
“You don’t get paid for activity. You get paid for results.”

And my mentor’s twist:
“Energy fades. Systems don’t. Build systems.”

New year. Same standards. Higher execution.
See you next month,
Cag

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