January 2026 Toronto Market Update: A New Reality Below $1M
For the first time in years, Toronto’s average home price has dropped below the $1 million mark. In January 2026, the average sale price came in at $973,000, ending a streak that began back in early 2021 when prices first crossed seven figures. Even through past market corrections, prices had stayed above that line, until now. This is a meaningful shift and a sign that the market is continuing to reset.
That said, December and January are always quieter months, so I don’t overreact to winter numbers. The real story will unfold in the spring. But when you combine falling prices with rising inventory especially in the condo market! it’s clear that buyers are gaining more leverage in many segments.
Where Prices Are Right Now
Looking at Toronto (416) specifically:
Detached homes: around $1.55M
Semi-detached: about $1.15M
Townhouses: just under $1M
Condos: around $631K
Year over year, prices are lower across most categories. Detached homes are down about 3%, semis are holding steady, townhouses are down nearly 7%, and condos are down close to 9%. Overall, prices are about 5%–8% lower than this time last year, which matches what we’re seeing on the groun
Sales, Listings, and Inventory
Sales volume dropped nearly 20%, which is significant. Some people blame weather and snowstorms, and that may play a role. But the bigger picture is that buyers are still cautious.
New listings were down 13%, which is actually a positive sign compared to 2025 when inventory flooded the market. Active listings are still up about 8%, meaning more choice for buyers.
This combination tells us the market isn’t overheating but it isn’t collapsing either. It’s selective.
Inventory Tells the Real Story
Different property types are behaving very differently:
Detached homes: 5.7 months of inventory (Getting strongly towards buyer’s market)
Semi-detached: 3 months (still very competitive in top areas)
Freehold Townhouses: Just under 4 months
Condo townhouses: 6 months
Condos: 7.5 months (Full blown buyer’s market)
In neighbourhoods like the Beaches, Roncesvalles, and the Junction, good semis are still getting multiple offers. One freehold townhouse at 242 Delaware Ave recently received 19 offers and sold for $1.327M at Junction area. i was expecting to see 1.23-1.24M but demand changed to story. But that strategy only works in the right pockets and definitely not in most condo buildings.
The Condo Market: Still Challenging
Condos remain the weakest segment. With over seven months of inventory, fewer than 15% of listings are selling each month. That means most units sit unless they’re priced properly.
Larger, end-user-focused condos especially two-bed, two-bath units with parking are still moving. Smaller one-bedroom units with no parking are struggling. Many buyers now won’t even consider listings without parking.
If you’re buying a condo in 2026, this is a negotiation market. But don’t expect fast appreciation. In some segments, prices may still soften.
Pricing and Positioning Matter More Than Ever
This is no longer a market where you can “test” a high price and hope for the best.
The strategy today is simple: strong marketing, realistic pricing, and quick adjustments when needed.
If a listing doesn’t get traction in the first 30 days, the market is usually telling you something. With this level of inventory, pricing is everything.
We’re constantly working to bridge the gap between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay. That’s how homes are getting sold in 2026.
Big headlines talk about averages and milestones like prices dropping below $1M but what really matters is your micro market. What sold in your building? On your street? In your neighbourhood? In the last 60-90 days?
That’s what determines value today.
Some segments are still competitive. Others strongly favour buyers. Understanding where your property fits is the difference between success and frustration in this market.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling this year, strategy matters more than ever. And that’s where the real advantage is.
