🌱 The Market Is Waking Up
Every year around this time something interesting happens.
The snow starts melting, the “For Sale” signs start popping up again, and buyers who were sitting quietly all winter suddenly start calling.
Spring is when the Toronto real estate market usually wakes up.
But this year… it’s waking up a little slower.
Let me explain what’s actually happening.
If you only look at the headlines, it can feel confusing. Prices are down compared to last year. Sales are also down. But at the same time, prices are slightly up compared to January and the number of homes coming to market is actually dropping even faster than sales.
Sounds messy, right?
Here’s the simple version.
In February there were 3,868 sales across the GTA, which is about 6% fewer transactions than last year. Not a huge drop, but still showing that buyers are being careful.
The bigger story is on the supply side.
Only about 10,700 new listings came to the market this February. Last year we saw roughly 13,000 during the same month.
That’s a 17.7% drop in new listings.
In plain English: fewer people are putting their homes up for sale.
And when supply drops faster than demand, something interesting can start to happen, the market slowly tightens.
Now let’s talk about prices.
The average price is about 7% lower than last year, but it did move up slightly compared to January. That’s actually normal. Prices almost always climb a bit as we move from winter toward spring.
Here’s roughly where prices landed in February:
Detached homes: just over $1.5M
Semi-detached homes: around $1.2M
Townhouses: about $980K
Condo apartments: roughly $663K
The biggest drop year-over-year happened in the detached market, which is down about 11%. Condos are also down about 8%, which many people who follow the condo market have already noticed.
But here’s the important part most headlines miss.
Toronto is not one market.
It’s a collection of dozens of small micro-markets that behave very differently.
In some neighbourhoods places like Riverdale, Leslieville, the Beaches, or Bloor West homes are still attracting multiple offers and selling above asking.
Now before people get too excited about that, there’s something to understand.
Many of those homes are intentionally priced below market value to attract attention.
So you might see a house listed for $999K that sells for $1.25M, or a property listed at $1.5M selling for $1.7M. That doesn’t necessarily mean prices are skyrocketing! Often it’s just a marketing strategy to create competition.
Meanwhile, the condo market downtown is telling a different story.
Inventory is higher there, and buyers have more negotiating power. Overall the condo market is sitting at about five months of inventory, which puts it closer to a balanced market.
And even within condos, the details matter a lot.
Two-bedroom units are moving faster than one-bedrooms.
One-bedroom plus den units with parking are selling much easier than those without.
When properties are priced properly, they’re usually selling for around 95% to 99% of the asking price.
That’s an important point for buyers.
Just because you negotiated money off the asking price doesn’t always mean you got a good deal.
If a property is $100K overpriced and you negotiate $50K off, you might still be overpaying. Meanwhile, paying full asking price for a property that’s priced correctly "or slightly below comparable sales" can actually be the smarter move.
That’s why understanding the micro-market and the pricing strategy matters more than the headline numbers.
At the beginning of the year many people expected the market to pick up faster than this.
So far, sales activity hasn’t exploded the way some predicted.
But as we move deeper into spring when more listings typically hit the market, we’ll start to see a clearer direction for 2026.
For now, the market isn’t cold… and it isn’t hot either.
It’s thinking.
And in real estate, the markets that pause like this often create the best opportunities for people who are paying attention.
